In a sign that should send alarm bells ringing at Team Kamala Harris, the notoriously liberal Quinnipiac Poll now shows Donald Trump in the lead 48-47%.
Of note, Trump has a 52-44% lead among Hispanics, which is larger than his lead among whites (50-46%), a historical first if the numbers hold on election day.
At this time in 2020, Quinnipiac had Biden up 10 points against Trump, who only ended up “winning” by 4.5 points (which includes any malarkey on the Democrats’ part), an error of 5.5 points in Biden’s favor.
Similarly, they had Hillary Cinton up by 5 points, and her popular vote victory margin was 2.1 points, meaning the poll gave her 2.9 extra points in her favor.
If the same margin of error were to hold today, that would imply Trump could even be 3.1-6.5 points ahead of Harris. And it’s worth keeping in mind that due to the electoral college, even if Harris were leading Trump by a point, he would still be favored to win the electoral college.
Apparently the Taylor Swift endorsement didn’t pay off.
