One commonality under the Biden administration has been jobs reports almost always being revised downward. The initial jobs gains always make the most headlines and get the most coverage relative to the revisions, which usually go unnoticed.
As I noted in reporting on the final jobs report before the November election; in fiscal year 2023, the government revised employment growth down by 443,000 jobs, which was over 40% of payroll growth. July is the only month in the 2023 fiscal year where the revised numbers estimated more jobs created than initially reported. That didn’t happen until a second revision, with the initial revision estimating 30,000 fewer jobs created than first reported.
And Back in 2022, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve estimated that the BLS overstated job creation by over 1 million between March and June of that year.
Strange how all these revisions are only in one direction isn’t it?
Now, a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has the latest data from 2024, and found that the Biden admin “overestimated” his employment statistics across 25 states in the second quarter of 2024.
The Biden administration reported a 1.8% national increase in employment in the second quarter, while the national survey showed a 1.1% increase - but the Fed found that the figures were off by 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points, overestimating the number of jobs by over 3 million across all 50 states.
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